A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
