Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
